Get ready for an exciting MLB free agency season! Despite missing the superstar trio of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto, the 2025-26 class is packed with sluggers and relievers, making it a fascinating watch. With a mix of starting pitchers and third basemen, the market is diverse, and predicting player destinations is a tricky task. This offseason promises to be a thrilling ride, with potential surprise signings causing a ripple effect of chaos.
Money will flow, but not always wisely. Last year's top domestic free agents retained a significant portion of their value, with an impressive 82% retention rate. This is a notable improvement from previous years, where the retention rate hovered around 50%.
Let's dive into the 2025-26 offseason and explore some intriguing free agent superlatives.
Player who might sign with a surprise team: Kyle Tucker
Tucker is the top free agent on everyone's radar, with a projected 11-year, $418 million contract. However, there are some risks associated with this deal. At 29 years old, Tucker has yet to have a 6-WAR season, which is unusual for a player of his caliber. Additionally, he has suffered major injuries in consecutive seasons, which could impact his performance and longevity.
The high price tag limits the number of teams that can afford Tucker. Interestingly, none of the clubs with the five highest payrolls in 2025 are guaranteed to pursue him aggressively. Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, and New York Yankees have the financial muscle, but they also have other priorities and existing talent in the outfield.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays are potential contenders, but they too have their own considerations. The Phillies need to re-sign Kyle Schwarber, and the Blue Jays, despite being in win-now mode, already have a hefty payroll commitment with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s $500 million deal.
So, where will Tucker land? The Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants could be dark horse candidates, while the Texas Rangers and Cincinnati Reds might also be in the mix. The Chicago White Sox, despite not being ready to win, could try to sell Tucker on their future vision.
Player most likely to help the Dodgers to a three-peat: Bo Bichette
Bichette is the perfect fit for the Dodgers' needs. He provides an upgrade at second base, where the team's performance has been lacking. With a solid batting average of .294, Bichette can boost the offense, which struggled in the postseason. At 28 years old, he is in his prime, and his projected five-year, $130 million contract is affordable for the Dodgers, leaving room for further signings.
Player the Reds need to roll out the red carpet for: Kyle Schwarber
The Reds had a successful 2025 season, making the playoffs for the first time in a full season since 2013. However, they need to address their power outage, as they finished 21st in the majors in home runs. Schwarber, who hit 56 homers and finished second in the NL MVP voting, is the ideal candidate to boost their offense.
With a projected four-year, $128 million contract, Schwarber is a more affordable option for the Reds compared to Tucker. Additionally, his Ohio roots might make him more inclined to join the Reds, especially with their young rotation that could keep them competitive during the contract term.
Player who could hit 40 home runs ... or be the biggest bust: Munetaka Murakami
Murakami, a Japanese-born player, holds the single-season home run record in Japan with 56 homers in 2022. However, his batting average has been inconsistent, dropping to .256 over the next three seasons. While his numbers improved in 2025, he still strikes out frequently, with a strikeout rate approaching 30% over the past three years.
The concern is that Murakami might struggle with the increased velocity in MLB, impacting his ability to make contact and showcase his power. Despite these concerns, teams are intrigued by his youth, as he is the youngest free agent available at 26 years old. If he can make the necessary adjustments, his upside is significant.
The perfect Swiss Army knife-type player: Cody Bellinger
Bellinger is a versatile player who can upgrade any team's corner outfield positions. With a projected six-year, $165 million contract, he is a more affordable option compared to Tucker. Bellinger is an excellent fielder and runner, with superior range and speed metrics.
His ability to play multiple positions makes him a valuable asset. Teams like the Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, and New York Mets could benefit from his versatility, especially if they need a center fielder or first baseman.
Player needed to get the Phillies over the top: Alex Bregman
The Phillies have had consistent success in recent years, but they haven't reached the World Series. Their offense has struggled in the postseason, hitting just .199 over the past two seasons. Bregman, with his winning attitude and impact at the plate, could be the missing piece.
Signing Bregman makes sense strategically, as he can replace Alec Bohm at third base, providing a more potent bat at the top of the lineup. If the Phillies re-sign Schwarber, Bregman could bat third or move into the cleanup spot, further strengthening their offense.
The closer worth the risk: Devin Williams
Teams in need of a closer have several options, including Edwin Diaz, Robert Suarez, and Ryan Helsley. However, Devin Williams, despite a rough 2025 season with the Yankees, still has the potential to be a premium reliever. His strikeout and swing-and-miss rates are impressive, and his expected batting average against is in the 95th percentile.
While his ERA was high, and he struggled in clutch situations, Williams' underlying metrics suggest he could be a valuable asset for a team looking to bolster their bullpen. The Seattle Mariners, who had a strong 2025 season, could be a perfect fit for Williams, as they were just one reliever short of a deeper postseason run.
Best free agent timing award: Tatsuya Imai
Imai had an impressive 2025 season in Japan, with a 1.92 ERA. However, his control has been inconsistent, and his reliance on his four-seam fastball might not translate well to MLB. Despite these concerns, his projection is a six-year, $135 million contract, which feels a bit optimistic.
Player most likely to end up on the Pittsburgh Pirates: Ryan O'Hearn
The Pirates were reportedly interested in Josh Naylor, so it's likely they will pursue a similar player. Ryan O'Hearn, who performed well against lefties last season, could be a good fit. With a small sample size, he deserves the opportunity to play regularly, and the Pirates could provide that chance.
The 40-something starting pitcher to bet on: Justin Verlander
Verlander, despite a slow start to the 2025 season, finished strong with a 2.60 ERA over his final 13 starts. His peripheral stats were impressive, and he remained healthy throughout the season. At 43 years old, Verlander is a veteran who could be a valuable addition to a team in a pitcher's park, such as the San Francisco Giants.
