Smartphone shipments are expected to dip in 2026, and the reason isn’t what you might assume.
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Each year, the same narrative repeats itself: smartphones are somehow boring. Yet the overall market continues to grow, with giants like Samsung, Apple, and other global brands selling hundreds of millions of phones annually.
So even if the designs aren’t as flashy or innovative as they once were, demand for something new persists. Counterpoint Research offers a glimpse into 2026, predicting a drop in smartphone shipments due to higher component costs and a squeeze on BOM (bill of materials) expenses driven by rising memory prices.
The consequences could be felt sooner rather than later
Prices for devices—phones and tablets—have largely held steady, but the consumer market has already taken a hit as memory prices have spiked in recent months. People are increasingly delaying purchases, hoping prices stabilize.
We previously examined the likelihood that phone prices would rise in 2026, a trend that seems supported by DRAM and NAND price trends. Counterpoint notes a real possibility that memory costs could climb even further next year.
Fewer innovations on the horizon
What this might mean in practice is tighter device availability and reduced model variety. Counterpoint suggests Apple and Samsung are better positioned to weather the cost pressures, but the timeline for a market recovery remains uncertain. We could see brands cutting costs in other areas or making higher-end products more appealing to justify premium pricing.
Interestingly, both Apple and Samsung experimented with ultra-thin phones this year, but those models didn’t gain much traction. It’s possible these designs won’t return, or could be pushed further with limited success. Even so, Samsung has enjoyed a strong year with strong product lineups, and there are whispers that Apple may launch a foldable in 2026, while OnePlus has yet to unveil something truly new.
New players face tough choices
New entrants like Nothing will need to navigate difficult strategic decisions as they begin to gain traction. Overall, 2026 looks set to be a challenging year for the entire industry. Here’s hoping the market finds a path to stability and growth.
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