The Outsider vs. the Insider: South Dakota's GOP Runoff and the Future of Republican Politics
What makes South Dakota’s gubernatorial race so fascinating isn’t just the candidates—it’s the larger story of where the Republican Party is headed. Personally, I think this runoff between Gov. Larry Rhoden and businessman Toby Doeden is a microcosm of the broader tension within the GOP: the establishment versus the outsider, the pragmatic versus the ideological. And in a state as reliably red as South Dakota, this race could signal whether the party is doubling down on Trumpism or seeking a return to traditional conservatism.
One thing that immediately stands out is Toby Doeden’s rise as a political newcomer. With roughly 31% of the vote in the initial round, he’s positioned himself as the anti-establishment candidate, branding himself as one of Trump’s “fiercest supporters.” What many people don’t realize is that this strategy isn’t just about Trump—it’s about tapping into a deep-seated frustration with government inefficiency. Doeden’s campaign website is a masterclass in populist rhetoric, framing him as the guy who’s “tired of the government’s failure to deliver on its promises.” If you take a step back and think about it, this is the same playbook that propelled Trump to victory in 2016. But here’s the kicker: Trump hasn’t endorsed anyone in this race. So, is Doeden’s Trump card enough to carry him to victory, or is he overplaying his hand?
On the other side, you have Larry Rhoden, the quintessential insider. As the state’s former lieutenant governor, agriculture secretary, and lawmaker, he’s the embodiment of the Republican establishment. His campaign focuses on property tax cuts and lowering crime—practical, bread-and-butter issues that resonate with voters. But here’s where it gets interesting: Rhoden’s 25% share of the vote in the first round suggests that while he has a solid base, he’s far from a shoo-in. What this really suggests is that even in a deep-red state, the GOP electorate is split. Rhoden’s challenge isn’t just to win the runoff—it’s to convince voters that experience and stability are more valuable than the promise of radical change.
A detail that I find especially interesting is the absence of a Trump endorsement. In a party where Trump’s backing can feel like a golden ticket, his silence speaks volumes. Is he staying out of it because he doesn’t want to alienate either side? Or does he see this race as a test of whether his brand of politics can thrive without his direct involvement? Personally, I think this raises a deeper question about the future of the GOP: Can Trumpism survive without Trump?
The eventual winner will almost certainly become governor—South Dakota hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since the 1970s, and Trump won the state by 29 points in 2024. But the real story here isn’t about who wins in November; it’s about what this runoff says about the Republican Party’s identity. From my perspective, this race is a referendum on whether the GOP wants to be the party of pragmatism or the party of disruption.
What makes this particularly fascinating is how it mirrors national trends. Across the country, we’re seeing similar battles between establishment Republicans and populist outsiders. South Dakota’s runoff is just one battleground, but it could be a bellwether for where the party is headed. If Doeden wins, it’ll be a victory for the Trump wing of the party—a sign that the GOP is fully embracing the outsider narrative. If Rhoden wins, it’ll suggest that voters still value experience and governance over ideological purity.
In my opinion, the most intriguing aspect of this race is what it reveals about voter psychology. Doeden’s success so far shows that there’s a significant portion of the electorate that’s still hungry for change, even in a state where Republicans dominate. But Rhoden’s campaign highlights the enduring appeal of competence and stability. This tension isn’t unique to South Dakota—it’s a reflection of the broader divide within the Republican Party.
As we head into the July 28 runoff, I’ll be watching closely to see which vision of the GOP prevails. But regardless of the outcome, one thing is clear: this race is about more than just who gets to be governor of South Dakota. It’s about the soul of the Republican Party—and that’s what makes it so compelling.
