Here’s a shocking truth: two-thirds of UK voters believe immigration is on the rise, even though the numbers tell a dramatically different story. According to exclusive polling shared with the Guardian, a staggering 67% of people think immigration is increasing, despite official data showing a sharp decline in net migration to the UK. But here’s where it gets controversial: this widespread misconception isn’t just a numbers game—it’s deeply tied to public trust, political strategies, and emotional debates about borders and belonging.
The poll, conducted by More in Common, reveals that UK voters have little faith in the government’s ability to manage immigration. This comes as a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s administration, which has adopted an increasingly tough stance on immigration in recent months. But is this hardline approach actually working, or is it fueling misinformation and division? Let’s dive deeper.
In the year ending June 2025, net migration to the UK plummeted by more than two-thirds, reaching a post-pandemic low. Yet, the public perception remains stubbornly out of sync with reality. Among Reform voters, a staggering four in five believe immigration has grown, with 63% convinced it has ‘increased significantly.’ This disconnect raises a critical question: Why are so many people convinced immigration is rising when the data says otherwise?
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has promised ‘the most substantial reform to the UK’s asylum system in a generation,’ proposing hardline policies aimed at deterring migrants and refugees. These measures include extending the wait time for refugee citizenship to 20 years, confiscating assets from asylum seekers, and restricting family reunions. But here’s the kicker: despite these aggressive policies, public confidence in the government’s handling of immigration has nosedived. Three-quarters of voters (74%) now have little to no trust in the government on this issue, up from 70% just a year ago. Even more striking, the biggest drop in confidence comes from Labour’s own supporters, with a 17% decline among those who backed the party in 2024.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, points out that Labour is facing a ‘growing credibility gap on migration.’ He argues that ‘numbers alone are not enough’ to shift public perception. And this is the part most people miss: the highly visible issue of small boat crossings continues to dominate public discourse, even though they represent less than 5% of total migration to the UK. In 2025, 43,000 people arrived by small boats—a 38% increase from the previous year but still far below the 2022 peak of 46,000. Yet, 79% of voters want the government to prioritize stopping these vessels, while only one in 10 believe reducing legal net immigration should be the focus.
Marley Morris from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) notes that there’s a ‘broad public cynicism’ around migration, but he also highlights a potential silver lining: as perceptions lag behind reality, voter opinions could shift in the coming months. But will they? Or is this cynicism too deeply ingrained to change?
Adding to the government’s woes, when presented with accurate migration figures, fewer than one in five voters credit Labour for the decline. A similar number attribute the drop to the previous Conservative government. Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in March 2023 but fell to 204,000 by June 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Visa applications also saw a sharp decline in 2025, with skilled worker visas down by 36% and health and care visas dropping by 51%.
Migration Minister Mike Tapp hailed these figures as proof that Labour’s policies are working, claiming they’re ‘restoring order to the broken immigration system.’ But is this decline a victory, or is it coming at a cost? Labour MP Kim Johnson argues that the party’s attempt to mimic Reform’s hardline stance is backfiring, leading to a rise in racism and a steep drop in work visas that could leave sectors like health and social care in crisis. She calls for a ‘positive alternative vision’ that upholds the rights and dignity of migrants. Is she right? Or is Labour’s tough approach necessary to regain public trust?
This debate isn’t just about numbers—it’s about values, trust, and the kind of society we want to build. What do you think? Is Labour’s hardline stance on immigration justified, or is it time for a different approach? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
